Abstract
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a high rate of recurrence, in particular for advanced disease, but prognosis based on staging and pathology at surgery can have limited efficacy. The presence of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) at diagnosis could be used to improve the prediction for disease recurrence. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of detecting methylated BCAT1/IKZF1 ctDNA at diagnosis in combination with demographic, lifestyle, clinical factors and tumor pathology, to assess predictive value for recurrence. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. METHODS: The cohort included 180 patients (36 with recurrent CRC), who had undergone complete treatment and surveillance for a minimum of 3 years. Participant clinical details and ctDNA methylated BCAT1/IKZF1 results were compared between those with and without recurrence, and cox regression analysis assessed each factor on disease-free survival. RESULTS: Clinical factors independently associated with reduced disease-free survival included nodal involvement (HR = 3.83, 95% CI 1.56-9.43, P = .003), M1 stage (HR = 4.41, 95% CI 1.18-16.45, P = .027), a resection margin less than 2 mm (HR = 4.60, 95% CI 1.19-17.76, P = .027), perineural involvement (HR = 2.50, 95% CI 1.01-6.17, P = .047) and distal tumors (HR = 3.13, 95% CI 1.07-9.18, P = .037). Methylated BCAT1/IKZF1 was detected in 51.7% (93/180) of pre-treatment plasma samples. When a positive ctDNA finding was considered in combination with these clinical prognostic factors, there was improved predictive power of recurrence for patients with perineural involvement (HR = 4.44, 95% CI 1.92-10.26, P < .001), and it marginally improved the predictive factor for M1 stage (HR = 7.59, 95% CI 2.30-25.07, P = .001) and distal tumors (HR = 5.04, 95% CI 1.88-13.49, P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Nodal invasion, metastatic disease, distal tumor site, low resection margins and perineural invasion were associated with disease recurrence. Pre-treatment methylated ctDNA measurement can improve the predictive value for recurrence in a subset of patients, particularly those with perineural involvement. REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry #12611000318987.