Abstract
Analysing DNA that organisms release into the environment (environmental DNA, or eDNA) has enormous potential for assessing rare and cryptic species. At present the method is only reliably used to assess the presence-absence of species in natural environments, as seasonal influences on eDNA in relation to presence, abundance, life stages and seasonal behaviours are poorly understood. A naturally colonised, replicated pond system was used to show how seasonal changes in eDNA were influenced by abundance of adults and larvae of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus). Peaks in eDNA were observed in early June when adult breeding was coming to an end, and between mid-July and mid-August corresponding to a peak in newt larval abundance. Changes in adult body condition associated with reproduction also influenced eDNA concentrations, as did temperature (but not rainfall or UV). eDNA concentration fell rapidly as larvae metamorphosed and left the ponds. eDNA concentration may therefore reflect relative abundance in different ponds, although environmental factors can affect the concentrations observed. Nevertheless, eDNA surveys may still represent an improvement over unadjusted counts which are widely used in population assessments but have unreliable relationships with population size.