Abstract
Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease that causes a significant global burden. The aim of this study was to report the latest estimates of the global, regional, and national schistosomiasis disease burden and forecast changes in schistosomiasis-related disease burden. This work was based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We analyzed the schistosomiasis data by sex, age in years, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region and country, using Age-Standardized Rates (ASR) for comparisons among different groups. The Estimated Annual Percent Changes (EAPC) analysis was used to evaluate the temporal trend of the disease burden, and the Differential Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models were used to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2046. In the GBD 2021 study, it was reported that compared to 1990, the number of deaths has decreased by 74,350, the prevalence number has increased by 1,482,260, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) have decreased by 1,770,436. Additionally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) has decreased by 0.31 per 100,000 people, with an EAPC of -0.353 (95% CI: -0.361 to -0.344). Similarly, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) has decreased by 15.45 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -1.56, 95% CI: -1.78 to -1.34), and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) has decreased by 559.64 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -0.63, 95% CI: -0.95 to -0.31). The regions and countries with the highest disease burden are mostly concentrated in Africa. Despite a general decline in global schistosomiasis burden indicators, the burden of disease has actually increased in high SDI areas. The ARIMA and ES models forecast results show that female mortality and ASMR will decline in the next 25 years, while male mortality and ASMR will remain stable, and other disease indicators will continue to decline. The global schistosomiasis burden has significantly decreased over the past 30 years, but it remains high in African regions and countries, as well as low-SDI areas. Effective cooperation among countries should be strengthened to improve the disease burden in high-burden areas and countries.