Abstract
Understanding Egypt's dependence on wheat imports is crucial for enhancing food security and economic stability. This study aims to identify the extent of Egypt's wheat import dependency and recommend measures for increasing food self-sufficiency. We employed index analysis and an econometric model to analyze data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), World Bank (WB), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Quantitative and qualitative indicators of wheat production and consumption were examined. Key findings include that Egypt's food insecurity levels remain unchanged, and the country faces threats from rising global food prices, low-quality agricultural land, and climate change, which is expected to reduce cereal yields by 6-15 %. Econometric analysis revealed that a 1 % increase in population growth and protein intake results in a 1.09 % and 3.63 % increase in wheat imports, respectively, while a 1 % increase in wheat consumption leads to a 0.87 % decrease in wheat imports. These findings suggest the need for Egypt to diversify its agriculture by adopting less water-intensive crops and improving irrigation efficiency. Future research should explore non-linear models, recent data, and qualitative factors to build on these insights and further inform policy development.