Abstract
Paratuberculosis is a worldwide disease causing production losses in dairy cattle herds. Variability of cattle response to exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) has been highlighted. Such individual variability could influence Map spread at larger scale. Cattle resistance to paratuberculosis has been shown to be heritable, suggesting genetic selection could enhance disease control. Our objective was to identify which phenotypic traits characterising the individual course of infection influence Map spread in a dairy cattle herd. We used a stochastic mechanistic model. Resistance consisted in the ability to prevent infection and the ability to cope with infection. We assessed the effect of varying (alone and combined) fourteen phenotypic traits characterising the infection course. We calculated four model outputs 25 years after Map introduction in a naïve herd: cumulative incidence, infection persistence, and prevalence of infected and affected animals. A cluster analysis identified influential phenotypes of cattle resistance. An ANOVA quantified the contribution of traits to model output variance. Four phenotypic traits strongly influenced Map spread: the decay in susceptibility with age (the most effective), the quantity of Map shed in faeces by high shedders, the incubation period duration, and the required infectious dose. Interactions contributed up to 12% of output variance, highlighting the expected added-value of improving several traits simultaneously. Combinations of the four most influential traits decreased incidence to less than one newly infected animal per year in most scenarios. Future genetic selection should aim at improving simultaneously the most influential traits to reduce Map spread in cattle populations.