Abstract
Due to the constraints of the rural-urban household registration systems, the migrants of China currently receive varying degrees of medical services. The fact that many migrants choose to return to their hometowns due to the inequality in medical care has been a social phenomenon. Using data from the 2017 China Migrant Dynamic Survey (CMDS), this paper explores the effect of medical services on population migration. Probit regression analysis method was utilized to examine the relationship between medical service level (MSL) and medical service improvement (MSI) and return behavior (RB), as well as the interaction effect between MSL and MSI, and the moderating effect of health status (HS) and health education (HE). Multiple heterogeneity tests were performed. Grouping regressions were conducted using rural household registration (RHR), grouping regressions were conducted using new rural cooperative medical system (NRCMS), and multinomial Probit regressions were conducted using migration distance and age factors. The following findings were obtained. First, when MSL is low but MSI is high in the locality of household registration, the return probability of migrants will increase. MSL also has a positive interaction effect with MSI, and they jointly increase the return probability of migrants; Second, HS and HE have a positive moderating effect on the relationships between MSL and RB and between MSI and RB; Third, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the migrants with RHR or the migrants not covered by the NRCMS are more prone to return due to the reason of medical service. In addition, the analysis also shows that middle-aged and older people who return across provinces have the highest tendency to return due to medical services and young people have the lowest propensity to return across and within provinces. The study could help local governments change their public medical care policies and close the gap between medical services in different areas. As a result, it is necessary to understand population migration trends and promote New Urbanization Strategies.