Abstract
Advanced metabolic-dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) fibrosis (F3-4) predicts liver-related outcomes. Serum and elastography-based non-invasive tests (NIT) cannot yet reliably predict MASLD outcomes. The role of B-mode ultrasound (US) for outcome prediction is not yet known. We aimed to evaluate machine learning (ML) algorithms based on simple NIT and US for prediction of adverse liver-related outcomes in MASLD. Retrospective cohort study of adult MASLD patients biopsied between 2010-2021 at one of two Canadian tertiary care centers. Random forest was used to create predictive models for outcomes-hepatic decompensation, liver-related outcomes (decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver transplant, and liver-related mortality), HCC, liver-related mortality, F3-4, and fibrotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Diagnostic performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC). 457 MASLD patients were included with 44.9% F3-4, diabetes prevalence 31.6%, 53.8% male, mean age 49.2 and BMI 32.8 kg/m(2). 6.3% had an adverse liver-related outcome over mean 43 months follow-up. AUC for ML predictive models were-hepatic decompensation 0.90(0.79-0.98), liver-related outcomes 0.87(0.76-0.96), HCC 0.72(0.29-0.96), liver-related mortality 0.79(0.31-0.98), F3-4 0.83(0.76-0.87), and fibrotic MASH 0.74(0.65-0.85). Biochemical and clinical variables had greatest feature importance overall, compared to US parameters. FIB-4 and AST:ALT ratio were highest ranked biochemical variables, while age was the highest ranked clinical variable. ML models based on clinical, biochemical, and US-based variables accurately predict adverse MASLD outcomes in this multi-centre cohort. Overall, biochemical variables had greatest feature importance. US-based features were not substantial predictors of outcomes in this study.