Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is caused by interaction of genetic and environmental risk factors. We evaluated potential determinants of the post-1990 increased incidence in North America. METHODS: Using fitted generalized linear models, we assessed clinical features, smoking and genetic risk scores (GRS) for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in the National Institutes of Diabetes, Digestion and Kidney Diseases IBD Genetics Consortium database, before and post 1990. RESULTS: Among 2744 patients (55% CD, 42.2% UC), smoking status and GRS were the main determinants of diagnosis age. After 1990, smoking at diagnosis declined significantly in both UC and CD (34.1% vs 20.8%, P < .001, and 14.7% vs 8.7%, P = .06, respectively). In UC, ex-smoking increased (9% vs 15%, P < .001), and nonsmoking rates remained unchanged, whereas in CD, ex-smoking remained unchanged. CD-GRS and IBD-GRS were significantly associated with young diagnosis age, Jewish ethnicity, IBD family history, and surgery. CD-GRS showed a borderline significant decrease (P = .058) in multivariate analysis post 1990 but only when excluding surgery in the model; surgery significantly decreased post 1990 in both CD and UC. CD-GRS inversely correlated with smoking at diagnosis (P < .001) suggesting that, in the presence of smoking, CD may only require a low genetic risk to develop. CONCLUSION: Significantly increase in ex-smoking correlates with UC incidence post 1990. Conversely, smoking risk decreased significantly post 1990 despite rising CD incidence. CD-GRS likewise trended to decrease post 1990 only when not accounting for a significant decrease in CD surgery. We therefore deduce that unaccounted risk factors (eg, dietary, obesity, antibiotic use, improved hygiene, etc.) or greater detection or presence of mild CD may underlie post-1990 increased CD incidence.