Abstract
BACKGROUND: The use of pharmacokinetics is associated with cost savings in anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy, but the long-term cost savings in a large cohort of Crohn's disease (CD) patients are unknown. AIM: The goal of this study was to compare the cost of anti-TNF therapy in two cohorts of CD patients losing response to infliximab, one using a test-based strategy and one an empirical dose escalation. METHODS: We used a selected mathematical model to describe the trajectories of CD patients based on a discrete event system. This design allowed us to track over a given period a double cohort of patients who moved randomly and asynchronously from one state to another, while keeping all the information on their entire trajectory. Both cohorts were modeled using state diagram parameters where transition probabilities from one state to another are derived from literature data. Costs were estimated based on the French health care system. RESULTS: Cost savings among the 10,000 CD patients using a test-based strategy were €131,300,293 at 5 years. At 5 years the mean cost saving was €13,130 per patient. The direct cost of the test had no impact on the results until the cost per test reached €2,000. CONCLUSIONS: A test-based strategy leads to major cost savings related to anti-TNF therapy in CD.