Abstract
Complement activation is involved in idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN). We aimed to investigate the relationship of serum complement cleavage factor Bb with IMN progression, and to establish a model for early prediction of kidney outcomes. We measured serum factor Bb in a retrospective cohort of 449 IMN patients at the time of kidney biopsy. Cox regression analysis showed that higher levels of serum factor Bb were independently associated with IMN progression event defined as end-stage renal disease or ≥ 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate. Patients in the middle and highest tertiles of serum factor Bb had respectively 2.1-, and 2.6-fold higher risk for disease progression compared with those in the lowest tertile. We developed an optimized prognostic nomogram model incorporating age, log serum anti-PLA2R antibody, log serum Bb, proteinuria and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis. The model demonstrated good predictive ability with a concordance index of 0.77 (bootstrap-corrected of 0.76) for predicting 3-, and 5-year kidney survival. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the model's good calibration and clinical utility. Our findings suggest that serum factor Bb may serve as an essential prognostic indicator of IMN. The novel nomogram model may offer important guidance on the management of this patient population.