Abstract
After 26 years of absence in Japan, a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak occurred at a domestic pig farm in 2018. Vaccination against the CSF virus with a live attenuated vaccine at pig farms was restarted in October 2019, which was 13 years after the 2006 ban on vaccination. An individual-based simulation model for CSF antibody dynamics was developed to determine an effective CSF vaccination strategy for pig populations. In creating a simulated pig herd, the optimal vaccination age of piglets and the effect of vaccinating piglets twice were evaluated. Additionally, the herd immunity was monitored every 6 months for 4 years after the start of vaccination, and the effects of intensive sow replacement policies were assessed. The simulation results indicated that the vaccination age should be delayed relative to the age used before the 2006 ban on vaccination and shifted earlier, from 8 weeks to 6 weeks, as time elapses. The simulations indicated a tradeoff in protection between the weaning period (i.e., maternally derived antibodies) and the fattening period (i.e., by vaccine-induced antibodies). Mixing sows with high and low antibody titers, particularly sows that received the first vaccination and those born after the start of vaccination, resulted in a high variation in antibody titer among pigs on the farm. This study also clarified the positive effect of intensive sow replacement strategies on shortening the period in which sows show diverse titers. Differences in sow replacement rates among farms and/or the time lag in starting vaccination in different prefectures result in heterogeneity in herd immunity in Japan; thus, herd immunity status should be examined at every farm using this simulation model.