Abstract
Objectives/Goals: We aim to enhance risk prediction in kidney transplantation outcomes by improving models of peptide antigen presentation of mismatched HLA molecules. HLA-derived peptides presented by HLA Class II to T-cells can activate an immune response, ultimately leading to graft failure. We aim to improve peptide prediction by modeling antigen processing. Methods/Study Population: T-cell epitope models for HLA mismatching struggle to predict which peptides are presented because antigen processing by proteases is not well modeled. We model antigen processing of HLA Class II proteins using 3D HLA structures (crystallography data) to create an HLA-specific antigen processing likelihood (APL) model. APL uses conformational stability measurements such as b-factor, COREX, solvent accessible surface area, and sequence entropy to predict cleavage sites from proteolysis. We will integrate APL into a T-cell epitope prediction tool for HLA-derived peptides based on donor and recipient HLA genotypes. Finally, we will associate the risk of graft failure with counts of these peptides derived from APL-integrated prediction models using a historical kidney transplant cohort from 2000 to 2023. Results/Anticipated Results: We expect that applying APL could reduce false-positive peptide binders influencing risk prediction scores. We anticipate improved peptide prediction accuracy compared to existing tools such as NetMHCIIPan, which assumes all possible peptides are equally likely to emerge from antigen processing. NetMHCIIPan is currently used by PIRCHE-II HLA mismatch risk algorithm. We expect that merging antigen processing (APL) and peptide-binding (NetMHCIIPan) models into a unified model would enhance risk stratification for graft failure. Current risk stratification still leads to poor outcomes post-transplant, especially for minority population groups. Our model can identify an alternative pool of well-matched donors and has the potential to improve equity for non-White minority candidates. Discussion/Significance of Impact: Improving the understanding of how HLA matching contributes to kidney transplant outcomes can better stratify risks for kidney transplant recipients, enable personalized treatment, and ultimately improve outcomes for those undergoing kidney transplantation to treat renal diseases.