Abstract
To develop and validate a machine learning-based prediction model to predict axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and clinical characteristics. This retrospective study included TNBC patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Jiangsu Province Hospital (2016-2023). We analyzed clinical characteristics and radiomic features from T2-weighted MRI. Using LASSO regression for feature selection, we applied Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) to build prediction models. A total of 163 patients, with a median age of 53 years (range: 24-73), were divided into a training group (n = 115) and a validation group (n = 48). Among them, 54 (33.13%) had ALN metastasis, and 109 (66.87%) were non-metastasis. Nottingham grade (P = 0.005), tumor size (P = 0.016) were significant difference between non-metastasis cases and metastasis cases. In the validation set, the LR-based combined model achieved the highest AUC (0.828, 95%CI: 0.706-0.950) with excellent sensitivity (0.813) and accuracy (0.812). Although the RF-based model had the highest AUC in the training set and the highest specificity (0.906) in the validation set, its performance was less consistent compared to the LR model. MRI-T2WI radiomic features predict ALN metastasis in TNBC, with integration into clinical models enhancing preoperative predictions and personalizing management.