Abstract
The field of neuromodulation lacks predictors of individual differences in plasticity that influence responses to repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS), a form of rTMS known for its inhibitory effects, shows variable responses between individuals, potentially due to differences in neuroplasticity. Predicting individual cTBS effects could vastly enhance its clinical and experimental utility. This study explores whether motor evoked potential (MEP) input-output (IO) parameters measured prior to neuromodulation can predict motor cortex responses to cTBS. IO curves were sampled from healthy adults by recording MEPs over a range of single pulse TMS intensities to obtain parameters including MEP (max) and S (50) (midpoint intensity). Subjects later received cTBS over the same location of motor cortex and their MEPs before and after stimulation were compared. Both MEP (max) and S (50) predicted responses, significantly correlating (p<0.05, R (2) >0.25) with individuals' MEP changes at 10, 20, and 30 minutes after cTBS. Further, we introduced and validated an easily implementable biomarker that does not require the time-consuming sampling of full IO curve: MEP (130RMT) (median of 10 MEPs at 130% RMT). MEP (130RMT) was also a strong predictor of cTBS response (p<0.005, R (2) >0.3). Head-to-head comparison against a previously studied genetic biomarker of rTMS responses (BDNF polymorphism) showed that IO based predictors had a superior performance in explaining more response variability. Thus, IO curves derived prior to cTBS administration can reliably predict cTBS-induced changes in cortical excitability. This work points toward an accessible strategy for tailoring stimulation procedures in both diagnostic and therapeutic applications of rTMS, and potentially boosting response rate to other brain stimulation approaches. HIGHLIGHTS: Baseline TMS-MEP Input-Output (IO) Curve parameters significantly predict MEP responses to M1 cTBS. Higher MEP (max) at baseline predicts more robust inhibitory response to cTBS, while higher midpoint intensity (S (50) ) is associated with less response. D We developed and validated a new biomarker MEP (130RMT) , which predicts cTBS response using just 10 baseline MEPs from single TMS pulses of 130% RMT intensity. Head to head comparison against BDNF genotyping shows superior performance of IO biomarkers.