Abstract
Climate change is driving changes in species distributions, particularly affecting specialists and species with limited adaptability. A notable example is the European bat, Barbastella barbastellus, which hibernates in cold, less insulated shelters, is closely associated with old mixed or deciduous forests, and is adapted to feed on moths. Populations of this species are declining and climate change is recognised as a significant contributing factor. In this study, we used species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques to evaluate current and future potential habitat suitability across Europe, incorporating three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585. Additionally, we assessed the extent of habitat suitability changes under projected climatic conditions within Natura 2000 sites that are aimed at conserving this species. Our projections indicate a possible northward range shift for B. barbastellus, coupled with fragmentation and habitat loss in southern Europe. Furthermore, areas currently protected by the Natura 2000 network may no longer provide suitable conditions for this species in the future. Our study highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies within networks such as Natura 2000 to protect species increasingly threatened by climate change, with B. barbastellus serving as an example.