Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Health impacts of global warming in sub-Saharan African countries that received President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-funded HIV support are not known. METHODS: Assuming the narrative of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2, we estimated excess deaths, life expectancy losses at birth, and economic welfare losses in terms of full income. We relied on the MAGICC climate model for temperature predictions from 2025-2100 and net all-cause mortality risks estimated by others. RESULTS: Surface temperature increases could reduce life expectancy at birth by 0.057 years in 2025 (95% CI: 0.024-0.095). By 2050, the reduction could increase by 30.7%, to 0.075 years (95% CI: 0.0311-0.1247). By 2100, it could further increase by 44.5%, to 0.083 years (95% CI: 0.034-0.138). Corresponding full income losses are US$11.44 billion in 2025 (95% CI: $4.77-$19.07 billion), which increases by 4-fold in 2050 to US$44.62 billion (95% CI: $18.65-$74.36 billion). By 2100, a 30-fold increase is possible, to US$353.56 billion (95% CI: $148.84-$588.32 billion). On a per capita basis, the highest full income losses consistently accrue to Lesotho between 2025 and 2100 (US$20.51, or 0.70% of per capita GDP, to US$355.39, or 0.80%). CONCLUSION: Adjusted investment is needed to address climate impacts, especially in countries such as Lesotho that may bear damage due to other regional emitters.