Abstract
In the context of global warming, there is an increasing risk of the emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). As one of the most important vectors, Culex tritaeniorhynchus can carry and transmit numerous human and animal infectious pathogens. To better understand the current distribution and possible future dynamics of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China, an ecological niche modeling approach (MaxEnt) was adopted to model its current and future habitat suitability. The most comprehensive dataset (1100 occurrence records) in China to date was established for model training. Multiple global climate models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios were introduced into the model to counter the uncertainties of future climate change. Based on the model prediction, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus currently exhibits high habitat suitability in southern, central, and coastal regions of China. It is projected that its suitable niche will experience continuous expansion, and the core distribution is anticipated to shift northward in the future 21st century (by the 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Several environmental variables that reflect temperature, precipitation, and land-use conditions were considered to have a significant influence on the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, among which annual mean temperature and urban land contribute the most to the model. Our study conducted a quantitative analysis of the shift and expansion of the future habitats of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, providing references for vector monitoring and the prevention and control of VBDs.