Abstract
BACKGROUND: An alarming observation from high-volume obstetric facilities in Nepal indicating a decreased institutional delivery rate and increased institutional neonatal mortality rate after the initial nationwide lockdown signaled the adverse population-level impact of the pandemic on the national trajectory of neonatal survival. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the impact of change in institutional delivery coverage on cause-specific neonatal mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Nepal. DESIGN: Modeling-based study. METHODS: We used the open-access Lives Saved Tool, based on a linear deterministic mathematical model validated for estimating cause-specific neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries, to estimate the number of additional neonatal lives saved and neonatal mortality rates. Using coverage change in institutional delivery rates as a proxy for interventions during childbirth, we compared the estimates using 'reported' coverage change during the pandemic with the 'targets' per Nepal Every Newborn Action Plan. RESULTS: The projected number of additional neonatal lives saved when the pandemic hit the hardest (Nepalese fiscal year 2020-2021) when national annual institutional delivery rate reportedly decreased was lower (104; 95% confidence interval: 69-148) compared to the target scenario (222; 95% confidence interval: 152-313). However, in the next year 2021-2022 when the institutional delivery rate increased, the number was higher (926; 95% confidence interval: 643-1295) compared to target scenario (329; 95% confidence interval: 226-466). The trajectory of the projected neonatal mortality rate per 1000 live births reversed (increased to 20.18) in 2020-2021 compared to 20.11 in 2019-2020 and then tracked down to 18.75 in 2021-2022. Most newborn lives would be saved from asphyxia, sepsis, and prematurity-related complications. Neonatal resuscitation, thermal protection, and cord care are the top three lifesaving interventions during childbirth. CONCLUSION: Neonatal survival in Nepal was adversely impacted during the peak of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, with a favorable bounce back next year, based on the Lives Saved Tool projection per change in institutional delivery coverage.