Abstract
Objective: To explore the predictive value of ferritin combined with the COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score for the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). Methods: The clinical data of 419 cases with HBV-ACLF hospitalized at the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University were retrospectively analyzed between January 1, 2013 and September 30, 2022, and were divided into the death (n=127) and survival group (n=292) according to the survival status of 28 days of follow-up. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare confirmation of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups. The chi-square test was used for the comparison of numerical data between the two groups. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. The predictive value of ferritin combined with the COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score on the prognosis of HBV-ACLF was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) and area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), and comprehensive discriminant improvement index (IDI). Results: There were statistically significant differences in age, neutrophil count (NEUT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), serum creatinine (Scr), serum urea, prothrombin time (PT), prothrombin activity (PTA), international normalized ratio (INR), serum ferritin (SF), hepatic encephalopathy, and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ scores between the two groups (P<0.05). Ferritin (OR=1.001, 95%CI:1.001-1.002, P<0.001) and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score (OR=2.898, 95%CI:1.560-5.384, P<0.001) were independent factors for predicting short-term prognosis for patients with HBV-ACLF. Ferritin combined with COSSH-ACLF II score had a higher prognostic predictive value than ferritin (AUC=0.697, 95%CI: 0.651-0.741) and COSSH-ACLF II score (AUC=0.819, 95% CI: 0.779-0.855) for patients with HBV-ACLF (AUC=0.857, 95%CI: 0.819-0.889), with a statistically significant difference (Z=6.287 and 2.666, respectively, P <0.05). The predictive effect was significantly improved following the addition of ferritin to the COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score (P<0.001), and the NRI and IDI were both >0 (NRI=0.144, 95%CI: 0.064-0.225; IDI=0.080, 95%CI: 0.052-0.108). Conclusion: Ferritin and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ scores are independent factors that can predict short-term prognosis for patients with HBV-ACLF, and combing both has a higher predictive value.