Abstract
In postmenopausal women with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3), hysterectomy is frequently performed after loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP) due to the concern for residual disease or occult carcinoma. However, the decision to proceed with hysterectomy is often made without validated predictive criteria, increasing the risk of overtreatment or underdiagnosis. The aim of this study is to identify independent predictors of residual CIN2+ (CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, invasive carcinoma) or invasive disease in hysterectomy specimens following LEEP in this high-risk population. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective study including 154 postmenopausal women (aged 50-75) who underwent total hysterectomy within 12 months after LEEP for histologically confirmed CIN3. Data collected included human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping (pre- and post-LEEP), endocervical curettage (ECC), cone margin status, transformation zone type, and histopathological outcomes of the hysterectomy specimen. Logistic regression and ROC curve analysis were used to assess predictive factors. RESULTS: Residual disease (CIN2+, AIS, or carcinoma) was found in 38 patients (24.7%), including 7 cases (4.5%) of occult carcinoma. Persistent high-risk HPV post-LEEP was the strongest independent predictor (adjusted OR for HPV 16/18: 74.0; p < 0.001), followed by positive ECC (OR: 3.64; p = 0.028). Cone margin status was not independently associated. The multivariate model showed good discriminative performance (AUC = 0.860; sensitivity 67.2%, specificity 72.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that persistent high-risk HPV infection and positive ECC are reliable predictors of residual or occult disease. These markers should be integrated into post-LEEP follow-up protocols to better identify candidates for hysterectomy and minimize unnecessary surgeries.