Abstract
BACKGROUND: Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is a widely recognized approach for managing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), particularly in its advanced stages, with prognosis highly dependent on tumour burden and baseline liver function. This study aimed to develop a predictive model and nomogram that incorporates these factors to improve survival outcomes in advanced HCC patients treated with SBRT and systemic therapy. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed records of 110 patients with advanced HCC treated with SBRT between May 2020 and April 2023. Inclusion criteria included age ≥18 years, cirrhosis, and suitability for SBRT. RESULTS: The median age was 63 years (range 28-84), with viral cirrhosis (40.9%) and NASH (38.2%) as the main aetiologies. At presentation, 83.6% of patients had portal vein thrombosis, 32.7% had nodal metastasis, and 50% had distant metastasis. The median tumour diameter was 9 cm, and 73.6% of patients had the multifocal disease.A median SBRT dose of 35 Gy (range 25-45 Gy) in 5 fractions was administered. Significant reductions in tumour markers were noted at three months: AFP levels dropped from a median of 309.75 ng/ml to 62 ng/ml (P = 0.015), and PIVKA II from 2230 mAU/ml to 345 mAU/ml (P = 0.001). Complete and partial responses were seen in 33% and 45% of patients, respectively. The median overall survival (OS) was 14 months (95% CI 11.7-16.2), with OS rates of 90%, 58%, and 34% at 6, 12, and 24 months. Progression-free survival (PFS) was 9 months (95% CI 6.4-11.5). Significant predictors of OS included multifocal tumour, portal vein thrombosis, lymph node involvement, serum bilirubin, serum albumin, and log PIVKA-II. The developed MAP-BNP nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.853, outperforming the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (0.62) and ALBI (0.64) scores. Patients were classified into low-risk (<200 points) and high-risk (>200 points) groups, with the low-risk group showing a significantly longer OS (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The MAP-BNP nomogram, integrating tumour burden and liver function, provides a more individualized approach for predicting survival in advanced HCC patients treated with SBRT and systemic therapy, outperforming traditional staging systems.