Abstract
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and underlying drivers of invasive species is crucial for moving beyond descriptive monitoring to predictive management. The red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren, RIFA) continues to spread globally, yet studies often lack the seasonal and cross-habitat resolution needed to explain the puzzling heterogeneity of infestations within urban landscapes-such as the stark contrast between high-density agricultural zones and low-density urban green spaces. To address this gap, we conducted a four-season, city-wide survey of 129 sites across four dominant habitat types (farmlands, fishponds, orchards, and urban green spaces) in Guangzhou, a core city of the GBA. Using inverse distance weighting interpolation, kernel density estimation, and spatial autocorrelation, we sought to examine not only the spatial patterns of RIFA distribution but also its potential contributing factors. Our analysis points to three key observations. First, the occurrence level of RIFA appears to follow a significant gradient (farmlands > fishponds > orchards > urban green spaces), suggesting that idle agricultural lands may serve as core reservoirs. Second, we observed a pronounced seasonal bimodal pattern, with peak infestation indices in spring and autumn-a dynamic that seems closely associated with agricultural disturbance cycles. Third, spatial analysis (Global Moran's I = 0.346, p < 0.001) revealed significant clustering, with "high-high" clusters concentrated in peripheral suburban districts. Notably, abandoned or idle farmlands emerged as a potentially important factor, possibly acting as dispersal hubs that help bridge these spatial and temporal peaks and offering one explanation for how local outbreaks may spread across the landscape. Collectively, these findings suggest that RIFA distribution may not be driven solely by static habitat suitability or climate; instead, they point to the importance of considering the dynamic interplay between land-use legacies (such as abandonment), seasonal agricultural practices, and spatial connectivity. By elucidating these drivers, this study refines the theoretical framework of urban invasion biology and provides a replicable, evidence-based control paradigm. We suggest implementing a "zoned, seasonal, and pathway-specific" management strategy that prioritizes suburban farmland complexes during critical seasons and targets abandoned lands for intervention, offering a path towards more sustainable and precise regional RIFA control in the GBA and beyond.