Chaotic model for COVID-19 growth factor

COVID-19增长因子的混沌模型

阅读:1

Abstract

PURPOSE: The new COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 initiated in the world a large quarantine, due to the exponential capacity of the virus in spreading from human contact. In the present work, the dynamics of such spreading was evaluated by the analysis of the growth factor of the disease. METHOD: It was applied the space phase of the time series, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the series, and the fractal dimension of the space phase. RESULTS: It was possible to notice a strange attractor in the space phase of the growth factor indicating that the process is a deterministic chaos. The value of the alpha coefficient by DFA showed to be less than 0.5, characteristic of anti-persistent long-range memory, in which large events alternate with small events, and vice-versa. The fractal dimension of the phase space set was a fractal number, between 1 and 2, another indicator that the growth factor of the disease is not random. CONCLUSION: This global analysis is pointing that the spread of COVID-19 is a deterministic chaos, with long-range memory. Understanding such dynamics may help the control of this disease.

特别声明

1、本页面内容包含部分的内容是基于公开信息的合理引用;引用内容仅为补充信息,不代表本站立场。

2、若认为本页面引用内容涉及侵权,请及时与本站联系,我们将第一时间处理。

3、其他媒体/个人如需使用本页面原创内容,需注明“来源:[生知库]”并获得授权;使用引用内容的,需自行联系原作者获得许可。

4、投稿及合作请联系:info@biocloudy.com。