Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The incidence of long COVID is substantial, even in people with mild to moderate acute COVID-19. The role of early viral kinetics in the subsequent development of long COVID is largely unknown, especially in individuals who were not hospitalized for acute COVID-19. METHODS: Seventy-three non-hospitalized adult participants were enrolled within approximately 48 hours of their first positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test, and mid-turbinate nasal and saliva samples were collected up to 9 times within the first 45 days after enrollment. Samples were assayed for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR and additional SARS-CoV-2 test results were abstracted from the clinical record. Each participant indicated the presence and severity of 49 long COVID symptoms at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 18-months post-COVID-19 diagnosis. Time from acute COVID-19 illness onset to SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance greater or less than 28 days was tested for association with the presence or absence of each of 49 long COVID symptoms at 90+ days from acute COVID-19 symptom onset. RESULTS: Self-reported brain fog and muscle pain at 90+ days after acute COVID-19 onset were negatively associated with viral RNA clearance within 28 days of acute COVID-19 onset with adjustment for age, sex, BMI ≥ 25, and COVID vaccination status prior to COVID-19 (brain fog: aRR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.95; muscle pain: aRR 0.28, 95% CI 0.08-0.94). Participants reporting higher severity brain fog or muscle pain at 90+ days after acute COVID-19 onset were less likely to have cleared SARS-CoV-2 RNA within 28 days. The acute viral RNA decay trajectories of participants who did and did not later go on to experience brain fog 90+ days after acute COVID-19 onset were distinct. DISCUSSION: This work indicates that at least two long COVID symptoms - brain fog and muscle pain - at 90+ days from acute COVID-19 onset are specifically associated with prolonged time to clearance of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from the upper respiratory tract during acute COVID-19. This finding provides evidence that delayed immune clearance of SARS-CoV-2 antigen or greater amount or duration of viral antigen burden in the upper respiratory tract during acute COVID-19 are directly linked to long COVID. This work suggests that host-pathogen interactions during the first few weeks after acute COVID-19 onset have an impact on long COVID risk months later.