Abstract
Objective: To analyze and predict the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B mortality status among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and 2022 to 2027, so as to provide a reference for hepatitis B prevention and control. Methods: The dataset of hepatitis B death cases from 2006 to 2021 published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was collected. The age was standardized using the population structure in 2000 as the standard population. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated for hepatitis B. The epidemiological distribution characteristics of hepatitis B deaths in terms of region, gender, age, and time were analyzed. The Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze the changing trend. The gray model was used to predict the CMR and ASMR of hepatitis B from 2022 to 2027. Results: A total of 77 722 cases died of hepatitis B from 2006 to 2021, with an average CMR and ASMR of 2.69/100 000 and 2.00/100 000, respectively. The ASMR of male and female showed an overall downward trend, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -5.4 (95%CI: -8.1 to -2.7, P<0.001) and -5.7 (95%CI: -8.4 to -3.0, P<0.001), respectively. The ASMR of urban and rural areas showed an overall downward trend, with an AAPC of -5.0 (95%CI: -7.7 to -2.2, P=0.001) and -5.7 (95%CI: -9.0 to -2.4, P=0.001), respectively. The average ASMR of hepatitis B from 2006 to 2021 in western, central, and eastern China was 2.86/100,000, 2.05/100,000 and 1.42/100,000, respectively, and the overall trend was downward. The gray model prediction results showed that the CMR of hepatitis B from 2022 to 2027 among Chinese residents was 2.36/100 000, 2.29/100 000, 2.22/100 000, 2.16/100 000, 2.10/100 000 and 2.03/100 000, respectively, while the ASMR was 1.37/100 000, 1.30/100 000, 1.23/100 000, 1.16/100 000, 1.10/100 000 and 1.04/100 000, respectively. Conclusions: The CMR and ASMR of hepatitis B have a declining trend year by year among Chinese residents, and further progress has been made in the prevention and treatment. The key focus and emphasis of future work should be to strengthen the screening and prevention of hepatitis B in rural areas, western regions, male demographics, targeted preventive and control measure formulations, and the lowering of mortality rates.