Monitoring public reaction to an unnecessary earthquake early warning alert

监测公众对不必要的地震预警的反应

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Abstract

False or unnecessary Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) alerts risk undermining public trust, potentially leading to alert fatigue or disengagement, a critical concern for policymakers. Although false alerts are inherently unpredictable, a rare opportunity to study one arose on October 26, 2024, when a planned military explosion was mistakenly classified as a magnitude 5.2 earthquake by the Israeli EEW system, triggering alerts to over one million people. This was the first-ever public EEW alert in Israel and occurred during wartime, following a year of near-daily missile alerts. A preregistered survey (N = 1,043) was conducted shortly after this event. Because the alert was geographically limited, the incident offered a quasi-experimental opportunity to compare attitudes between those who received the alert and those who did not. Results showed that the public remained largely motivated to follow EEW guidance and had considerable tolerance for false alerts. However, tolerance was significantly lower for false EEW alerts than false missile alerts, indicating different public perceptions of seismic versus security threats. Despite the false alert and prolonged exposure to alerts, public support for receiving warning, even for non-damaging, felt events, remained strong. These findings highlight the resilience of public trust and offer insights for designing effective alert systems.

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