Abstract
BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BD) is a highly recurrent disorder. Early detection, early intervention, and prevention of recurrent bipolar mood symptoms are key to a better prognosis. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to build prediction models for BD with machine learning algorithms. METHODS: This study recruited 24 participants with BD. The Beck Depression Inventory and Young Mania Rating Scale were used to evaluate depressive and manic episodes, respectively. Using digital biomarkers collected from wearable devices as input, 6 machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, decision tree, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, adaptive boosting, and Extreme Gradient Boosting) were used to build predictive models. RESULTS: The prediction model for depressive symptoms achieved 83% accuracy, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.89, and an F1-score of 0.65 on testing data. The prediction model for manic symptoms achieved 91% accuracy, an AUROC of 0.88, and an F1-score of 0.25 on testing data. With the interpretable model Shapley Additive Explanations, we found that relatively high resting heart rate, low activity, and lack of sleep may predict depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that digital biomarkers could be used to predict depressive and manic symptoms. This prediction model may be beneficial for the early detection of mood symptoms, facilitating timely treatment and helping to prevent BD recurrence.