Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome reflects the interplay among metabolic risk factors, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). While the hemoglobin glycation index (HGI) has demonstrated prognostic value for cardiovascular events, its clinical utility remains unexplored in early-stage CKM syndrome. METHODS: Participants with early-stage CKM syndrome (stage 0-3) were recruited from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) database. Using k-means clustering analysis, the participants were classified according to the values of HGI measured at baseline and 3 years later, respectively. The primary outcome was self-reported CVD during the follow-up of at least 3 years. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was applied, with the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method used to determine feature importance. Multivariable logistics proportional regression analysis the association between HGI and CVD, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression assessed potential nonlinear relationships. RESULTS: A total of 4676 eligible participants were included in the final analysis, with 944 (20.19%) progressed to CVD within 10 years. Among the baseline clinical features, HGI ranked the second for the impact on the occurrence of CVD. According to the changes of HGI values, the participants were clustered into 4 classes. Compared to the class 1 with lower level of HGI, higher risk of CVD was observed in class 3 (adjusted OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.06-1.69, P = 0.013) and class 4 (adjusted OR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.01-2.45, P = 0.025) with higher and rapidly increasing level of HGI. RCS analysis showed cumulative HGI and the risk of CVD were linearly related (P for nonlinearity = 0.967). Subgroup analyses confirmed the stability of the association. Additionally, the SHAP plot revealed that HGI were the more important features than traditional risk factors such as FBG for predicting CVD. CONCLUSION: HGI is associated with an elevated risk of CVD in participants with early-stage CKM syndrome. HGI can serve as an independent biomarker for guiding clinical decision-making and managing patient outcomes.