Stacked hybrid model for load forecasting: integrating transformers, ANN, and fuzzy logic

用于负荷预测的堆叠式混合模型:集成变压器、人工神经网络和模糊逻辑

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Abstract

Modern energy management systems must include load forecasting in order for utilities to plan and optimize electricity distribution, lower operating costs, and improve grid stability. With the addition of renewable energy sources and the advancement of smart grid technology, energy systems have become increasingly complex, making accurate forecasting increasingly challenging. Conventional techniques, including regression models and ARIMA, frequently perform less well because they are unable to capture the complex multivariate relationships and temporal dependencies present in energy data. Furthermore, these techniques are prone to errors in the presence of noisy data and have scalability issues when used on big, high-dimensional datasets. This paper presents a hybrid forecasting framework that combines artificial neural networks with Time Series Transformers and Fuzzy Logic Transform in order to overcome these drawbacks. The Transformer architecture excels in capturing long-term dependencies and interdependencies between features through its self-attention mechanism. Meanwhile, FLT + ANN effectively preprocesses noisy, irregular data and models short-term nonlinear patterns. The combination of these techniques creates a robust framework capable of handling complex energy datasets while maintaining high accuracy. Extensive tests on actual energy datasets show that the suggested hybrid model outperforms both conventional and stand-alone methods. With RMSE and MAE reductions of up to 15-20%, the model outperforms baseline models such as Random Forests, Decision Trees, and Linear Regression. These findings demonstrate how the suggested paradigm has the potential to transform load forecasting and enable more intelligent, effective energy systems.

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