Abstract
BACKGROUND: Evidence from the surveillance systems of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) gonorrhea suggests substantial variation in the prevalence of AMR gonorrhea across populations. However, little is known about the extent to which the population-level demographic, socioeconomic, and health factors (e.g., population density, poverty level, or the prevalence of other sexually-transmitted diseases) are associated with the burden of AMR gonorrhea. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal logistic regression model to investigate the association between multiple spatially- and temporally-varying predictors and the proportion of isolates with resistance to each one of ciprofloxacin, penicillin, and tetracycline between 2000 and 2019 in the United States (US). METHODS: The model was informed by data from the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP), a sentinel surveillance system to monitor trends in the AMR gonorrhea in the US. During our study period, GISP included 112,487 isolates from the first 25 symptomatic men who have been diagnosed with urethral gonorrhea each month after attending participating sexually-transmitted disease clinics in one of about 30 select cities. FINDINGS: Among 112,487 isolates collected between 2000 and 2019, 16.5%, 13.7%, and 22.2% were resistance to ciprofloxacin, penicillin, and tetracycline. Denser populations were associated with higher prevalence of ciprofloxacin and penicillin resistance (odd ratio (OR): 1.5, 95% with credible interval: [1.29, 1.74] and 1.36 [1.22, 1.52], respectively); West was associated with higher prevalence of ciprofloxacin resistance (OR with respect to Midwest: 14.42 [2.02, 59.27]) and Southeast was associated with higher prevalence of ciprofloxacin and penicillin resistance (OR with respect to Midwest: 6.66 [1.59, 18.20] and 7.59 [2.3, 22.94]); higher prevalence of HIV was associated with higher prevalence of ciprofloxacin and tetracycline resistance (OR: 1.18 [1.01, 1.37] and 1.14 [1.02, 1.28]); and higher incidence of gonorrhea was associated with higher prevalence of tetracycline resistance (OR: 1.08 [1.05, 1.11]). INTERPRETATION: Geographic location and certain population-level characteristics including population density and HIV prevalence could provide insight about the population-level risk of AMR gonorrhea at a county-level. These results could guide the expansion of AMR surveillance systems or access to drug susceptibility testing in areas with characteristics associated with increased prevalence of AMR gonorrhea. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.