Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Learning theories suggest an aversive learning process whereby negative consequences of alcohol use (AU) curtail drinking. Yet, the literature examining this prospective association is mixed. We aimed to clarify this aversive learning process by identifying how (mediators), for whom (moderators), and when (differences across development) such learning occurs. Negative alcohol expectancies were proposed as a mediator and sensitivity to punishment (SP) was proposed as a moderator. Negative consequences were hypothesized to lead to increases in negative expectancies and, in turn, reductions in AU. Associations were expected to be strongest at high SP. This proposed aversive learning pathway was estimated in adolescence (limited alcohol experience) and young adulthood (significant alcohol experience) to examine differences in learning across developmental period. METHOD: Data from a longitudinal community sample (N=387) assessed annually for three years in adolescence (ages = 12-14) and in young adulthood (ages = 19-21) were analyzed using prospective path models. RESULTS: In adolescence, negative consequences were not associated with negative expectancies, but negative expectancies were inversely associated with AU. In contrast, negative consequences were positively associated with negative expectancies in young adulthood, but negative expectancies were not associated with AU. Moderation was not supported. CONCLUSIONS: Negative consequences are uncommon among community adolescents and, as a result, may not shape negative expectancies, yet negative expectancies are protective against AU. In young adulthood, negative consequences appear salient enough to shape negative expectancies, but they no longer serve a protective function. Findings suggest a shifting role of drinking experience in the development of expectancies and the influence of expectancies on AU.