Abstract
Climate change reshapes species distributions, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate ecological impacts. This study investigates the potential spread of Phloeosinus aubei, a bark beetle with significant ecological consequences, under future climate scenarios in China. Using the MaxEnt model, we integrated occurrence records and scientific literature with bioclimatic and terrain variables to predict habitat suitability. The results reveal that P. aubei's distribution is highly influenced by precipitation and temperature, with key variables like annual precipitation (bio12, 30.4% contribution) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6, 29% contribution) driving habitat suitability. Notably, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), high-suitability areas could expand by 82.29% by the 2050s due to warming-induced precipitation changes in southwestern China. Model validation confirms a high predictive accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.92, underscoring the reliability of these projections. These findings highlight the beetle's potential to colonize new regions, posing risks to forest ecosystems. The study underscores the need for adaptive management strategies, including early detection and climate-resilient forestry practices, to safeguard vulnerable ecosystems from invasive species under climate change.