Abstract
Enteric pathogen transmission is influenced by seasonality and meteorological conditions, yet pathogen-specific dynamics are not well understood. We investigated the relationships between (1) season, (2) heavy rainfall events, and (3) temperature and enteric pathogen infections among 12-month-old children in a low-income, urban setting. We analyzed household data and stool samples from 630 participants enrolled in the PAASIM Study in Beira, Mozambique (February 2022-November 2023) and applied generalized estimating equations with robust standard errors (modified Poisson for binary outcomes and linear regression for continuous outcomes). During the rainy season, compared to the dry season, we found a 34% lower prevalence of protozoan infections [aPR: 0.66; 95% CI: (0.51,0.86)], an 11% lower prevalence of co-infections [aPR: 0.89; 95% CI: (0.78,1.00)], and lower total number of concurrent infections per individual [ab: -0.17; 95% CI: (-0.38,0.04)], as well as relationships with some individual pathogens. Following heavy rainfall events (1-week lag), there was a 30% higher prevalence of protozoan infections [aPR: 1.30; 95% CI: (1.06,1.59)], a 22% higher prevalence of viral infections [aPR: 1.22; 95% CI: (0.95,1.57)], and a 10% higher prevalence of co-infections [aPR: 1.09; 95% CI: (0.99,1.21)]. Temperatures above the median (1-week lag), compared to below the median, were associated with a 35% lower prevalence of protozoan infections [aPR: 0.65; 95% CI: (0.49,0.86)] and a 14% lower prevalence of co-infections [aPR: 0.86; 95% CI: (0.76,0.97)]. Our results contrast many previous studies that have predominately shown a higher risk of bacterial infections and a lower risk of viral infection during periods with higher temperatures and precipitation but align with previous research suggesting a higher prevalence of some enteric infections following heavy rainfall events. Both long-term seasonal trends in enteric infections as well as the more immediate effects of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall events, are important considerations for designing interventions.