Abstract
OBJECTIVE: As a common yet intractable complication of severe sepsis, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is closely associated with poor clinical outcomes and elevated medical expenses. The aim of the current study is to generate a model combining transcriptional biomarkers and clinical parameters to alarm the development of ARDS in septic patients. METHODS: Gene expression profile (GSE66890) was downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus database and clinical data were extracted. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from whole blood leukocytes were identified between patients with sepsis alone and septic patients who develop ARDS. ARDS prediction model was constructed using backward stepwise regression and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Meanwhile, a nomogram based on this model was established, with subsequent internal validation. RESULTS: A total of 57 severe septic patients were enrolled in this study, and 28 (49.1%) developed ARDS. Based on the differential expression analysis, six DEGs (BPI, OLFM4, LCN2, CD24, MMP8 and MME) were screened. According to the outcome prediction model, six valuable risk factors (direct lung injury, shock, tumor, BPI, MME and MMP8) were incorporated into a nomogram, which was used to predict the onset of ARDS in septic patients. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between the probabilities and observed values. The decision curve analysis also revealed the potential clinical usefulness of the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for the prediction of ARDS occurrence in septic patients by the nomogram was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.767-0.952). A sensitivity analysis showed that the AUROC for the prediction of ARDS development in septic patients without direct lung injury was 0.967 (95% CI = 0.896-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram based on transcriptional biomarkers and clinical parameters showed a good performance for the prediction of ARDS occurrence in septic patients.