Abstract
This research examines the effects of parental belief on adolescent later smoking and drinking behaviors. Previous studies show that parental belief may have detrimental or beneficial influences on adolescents' behaviors. Analysis is based on Wave 1 and 2 data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), N = 3232, and is conducted using an OLS regression estimation and propensity score matching (PSM; nearest-neighbor and kernel matching). Results show that, of adolescents who used cigarettes and alcohol at Wave 1, they are more likely to continue the activity if their parents were aware of it. Adolescents are also more likely to use cigarettes if their parents believed they smoked when in fact they did not. Of adolescents who did not use alcohol, no significant association is found between parental belief and their later alcohol use. Self-fulfilling prophecy is proposed to explain the effects of parental belief. Results obtained from PSM show weaker effects of parental belief, suggesting that part of the effects is explained by shared factors which are responsible for the belief and adolescent substance use. Adolescent concealment is proposed as an important unobserved confounder that influences the association between parental belief and adolescent substance use. The study suggests that research on parent-adolescent communication affected by the self-fulfilling prophecy needs to consider adolescents' intentional concealment, which may help avoid conflicts elicited by discussing topics that adolescents feel uncomfortable confiding in.