Abstract
Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) occupies major causes of tumor death. Identifying potential prognostic risk genes is crucial to predict the overall survival of patients with LUAD. In this study, we constructed and proved an 11-gene risk signature. This prognostic signature divided LUAD patients into low- and high-risk groups. The model outperformed in prognostic accuracy at varying follow-up times (AUC for 3 years: 0.699, 5 years: 0.713, and 7 years: 0.716). Two GEO datasets also indicate the great accuracy of the risk signature (AUC = 782 and 771, respectively). Multivariate analysis identified 4 independent risk factors including stage N (HR 1.320, 95% CI 1.102-1.581, P = 0.003), stage T (HR 3.159, 95% CI 1.920-3.959, P < 0.001), tumor status (HR 5.688, 95% CI 3.883-8.334, P < 0.001), and the 11-gene risk model (HR 2.823, 95% CI 1.928-4.133, P < 0.001). The performance of the nomogram was good in the TCGA database (AUC = 0.806, 0.798, and 0.818 for 3-, 5- and 7-year survival). The subgroup analysis in different age, gender, tumor status, clinical stage, and recurrence stratifications indicated that the accuracy was high in different subgroups (all P < 0.05). Briefly, our work established an 11-gene risk model and a nomogram merging the model with clinicopathological characteristics to facilitate individual prediction of LUAD patients for clinicians.