Abstract
BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by systemic inflammation, leading to high short-term mortality. The lymphocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio (LHR) has been introduced as a novel marker of inflammation. However, its role as a prognostic inflammatory biomarker in the context of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has received limited attention. METHODS: We retrospectively included 272 patients with HBV-ACLF who met the definition of APALC. Data on clinical features and laboratory tests were collected from medical records within 24 h. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for poor short-term prognosis, and LHR-based prediction (LHRB) models were constructed based on risk factors. Furthermore, the accuracy of the LHRB model was validated through rigorous testing. RESULTS: In the survival and death groups, there were statistical differences in their CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, COSSH-ACLF II scores, and LHR. Multivariate logistic regression identified seven predictors significantly associated with 28-day mortality. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in short-term mortality and certain clinical laboratory tests for poor prognosis were observed between the high and low LHR groups. To assess the predictive performance of various models in terms of short-term mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated. The AUROC values for the CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, COSSH-ACLF II, and LHRB models were found to be 0.725, 0.788, 0.772, 0.871, and 0.877, respectively. The results in the validation group were similar to those in the training group, and the validation results suggested excellent performance of the LHRB model. CONCLUSION: LHR levels have the potential to serve as indicators for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. Additionally, the recently developed LHRB model offers an accessible risk assessment tool.