Abstract
Although the Guangxi region accounts for 10% of all HIV-1 cases new reported in 2011 in China, the sources of the transmitted HIV-1 strains are virtually unknown. To determine the extent to which recent HIV infections were derived from already circulating local strains as opposed to recently introduced strains, we performed a cross-sectional molecular epidemiological investigation of recent infections across Guangxi during 2012-2013. HIV-1 nucleotide sequences were amplified and sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses of pol gene regions were used to determine HIV-1 transmission source strains. Based on 229 sequences generated, the subtype/CRF distribution was as follows: CRF01_AE (61.1%), CRF07_BC (18.8%), CRF08_BC (16.6%), CRF55_01B (3.1%), and subtype B' (0.4%). In total, 213 of 229 (93.0%) sequenced transmission strains were derived from already-circulating local strains. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that only an age of 18-25 years was significantly associated with transmission from outside Guangxi (compared to >25 years, AOR: 5.15, 95% CI: 1.18-22.48, p < 0.01). This is the first study to use a Bayesian discrete phylogeographic approach to analyze transmission source strains in China. Our results provide useful data for designing evidence-based prevention strategies and methods for combating the rapid spread of sexually transmitted HIV in Guangxi.