Abstract
BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of the risk of recurrence is crucial for optimal treatment decisions in hormone receptor (HR)-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early breast cancer. The GenesWell BCT is a molecular assay to predict the 10-year risk of distant metastasis. In this study, we evaluated the long-term prognostic value of the GenesWell BCT assay. METHODS: The BCT score was assessed in patients with HR-positive/HER2-negative early breast cancer who did not receive chemotherapy. We compared the 15-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) between risk groups classified based on the BCT score. The risk of early (0-5 years) and late (5-15 years) recurrence was evaluated based on the BCT score classification. RESULTS: According to the BCT score, 366 patients from Japan and Korea were categorized as BCT low risk (83.6%) and high risk (16.4%) for distant metastasis. Median follow-up time was 17.4 years. The 15-year DMFS rate was significantly lower in the BCT high-risk group (63.3%) than in the BCT low-risk group (93.6%) (P < 0.001). The BCT risk group was an independent prognostic factor for 15-year DMFS (hazard ratio, 4.59; 95% confidence interval 2.13-9.88; P < 0.001). Furthermore, the BCT score was a significant predictor of late recurrence (5-15 years) in patients aged ≤ 50 years and those aged > 50 years, and added prognostic information to traditional clinical prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: The BCT score can identify patients at low risk for recurrence who may not require adjuvant chemotherapy or extended endocrine therapy, regardless of age.