Abstract
BACKGROUND: Tobacco is the leading preventable cause of death globally and tobacco taxation is a cost-effective method of reducing tobacco use in countries and increasing revenue. However, without adequate enforcement some argue the risk of increasing illicit trade in cheap tobacco makes taxation ineffective. We explore this by testing sub-national variations in the impact of tobacco tax increases from 2009 to 2011, on seven smoking-related diseases in adults in Romania, to see if regions that are prone to cigarette smuggling due to bordering other countries see less benefit. METHOD: We use a pragmatic natural experiment study approach to analyse the study period 2009-15. Findings from hospital episodes data relating to smoking-attributable diseases are analysed for six regional subgroups which are compared according to border characteristics with other countries. RESULTS: At a national level smoking-attributable diseases reduced over the study period especially around the tax increase years, with asthma showing the most significant decline. Sub-nationally there was no statistically significant correlation in variations between central regions and those bordering other countries. CONCLUSION: There is a reassuring decline in hospitalizations for smoking-related diseases associated with the tax increases, and no sub-national association with smuggling risk measured by variation in the size of this effect and regions that border other countries. More comprehensive and progressive tobacco control in Romania should be implemented in line with the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control.