Abstract
BACKGROUND: The cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) is a physiologic marker reflecting arterial function. There have been no prospective studies investigating the relationship between CAVI and cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this prospective study was to assess the clinical usefulness of CAVI as a predictor of primary cardiovascular events in patients with CKD. METHODS: The study enrolled 460 outpatients with CKD but no history of cardiovascular disease (152 men and 308 women; mean ± standard deviation age, 74 ± 12 years). Patients were assigned to one of three groups: low (L, CAVI < 9; n = 100), medium (M, CAVI 9 - 10; n = 199), or high (H, CAVI > 10; n = 161). The utility of the CAVI as a predictor of primary cardiovascular events was evaluated. RESULTS: During the follow-up period (median 60.1 months), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) occurred in 91 cases (L, 8 (8.0%); M, 31 (15.6%); H, 52 (32.3%); P < 0.001, log-rank test). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the risk for a MACE was significantly higher in group H than in non-group H (hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 - 3.02; P < 0.01). A CAVI cut-off of 9.7 yielded the largest area under the curve, 0.701 (95% confidence interval: 0.657 - 0.743, P < 0.001), indicating a sensitivity of 74.0% and a specificity of 59.6% for discriminating between those who did and did not experience a MACE during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study showed that a high CAVI is a predictor of primary cardiovascular events in patients with CKD.