Abstract
BACKGROUND: Serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR) is one of the most frequent indicators to discriminate fibrosis and cirrhosis. However, the results remained controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive effect of AAR on hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis development. METHOD: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on 1754 chronic HBV-infected patients. Clinical variables at their initial visit and follow-up data were collected. Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to evaluate the predictive value of AAR on cirrhosis risk, and its discrimination accuracy was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC). The time-dependent effect was assessed by a Fine and Gray competing risk model. RESULTS: Compared to patients with lower AAR, those with elevated AAR level had higher risk of cirrhosis development by adjusting for host characteristics (dichotomized analyses: hazard ratio = 2.77, P = 8.25 × 10 -4 ; tertile analyses: hazard ratio = 2.95, P = 1.61 × 10 -3 ), with an increasing risk trend ( Ptrend = 4.56 × 10 -4 ). The effect remained prominent when ALT or AST was abnormal, while no significant risk was observed when AST and ALT were simultaneously normal. Time-dependent effect analysis demonstrated a persistently higher risk, with the average hazard ratio equivalent to 1.92. AAR level could improve the discrimination efficacy of host variables with area under the curve increased from 0.684 to 0.711 ( P = 0.039 ). CONCLUSION: Higher AAR was significantly associated with increased risk of HBV-related cirrhosis, and might be a potential predictor of cirrhosis development.