Abstract
BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor cell (CTC) count and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) are both closely associated with the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). AIM: To investigate the prognostic value of combining these two indicators in HCC. METHODS: Clinical data were collected from patients with advanced HCC who received immune therapy combined with targeted therapy at the Department of Oncology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Sichuan, China, from 2021 to 2023. The optimal cutoff values for CTC programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) (+) > 1 or CTC PD-L1 (+) ≤ 1 and NLR > 3.89 or NLR ≤ 3.89 were evaluated using X-Tile software. Patients were categorized into three groups based on CTC PD-L1 (+) counts and NLR: CTC-NLR (0), CTC-NLR (1), and CTC-NLR (2). The relationship between CTC-NLR and clinical variables as well as survival rates was assessed. RESULTS: Patients with high CTC PD-L1 (+) expression or NLR at baseline had shorter median progression-free survival (mPFS) and median overall survival (mOS) than those with low levels of CTC PD-L1 (+) or NLR (P < 0.001). Meanwhile, patients in the CTC-NLR (2) group showed a significant decrease in mPFS and mOS. Cox regression analysis revealed that alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), CTC PD-L1 (+), and CTC-NLR were independent predictors of OS. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the area under the curve of CTC-NLR at 12 months (0.821) and 18 months (0.821) was superior to that of AFP and CTC PD-L1 (+). CONCLUSION: HCC patients with high CTC PD-L1 (+) or NLR expression tend to exhibit poor prognosis, and a high baseline CTC-NLR score may indicate low survival. CTC-NLR may serve as an effective prognostic indicator for patients with advanced HCC receiving immunotherapy combined with targeted therapy.