Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The global obesity epidemic remains a significant threat to public health and the economy. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis is one method to model the trajectory of obesity. However, there is scarce published evidence of such analyses among the South East Asian population. This study aims to explore the sex and ethnic variations of BMI and waist circumference trajectories over time among non-institutionalized Malaysian adults aged 18 to 80 years. METHODS: Data from four population-based National Health and Morbidity Surveys conducted in 1996, 2006, 2010, and 2015 were pooled. Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort (HAPC) analysis explored the trajectories of BMI and waist circumference across the life course and birth cohorts by sex and ethnicity. These models assumed no period effect. RESULTS: Generally, BMI and waist circumference trajectories increased across age and birth cohorts. These trajectories varied by sex and ethnicity. Females have more profound increasing BMI and waist circumference trajectories than their male counterparts as they age and as cohort recency increases. Chinese have less profound BMI and waist circumference increases across the life course and birth cohorts than other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: The profound increasing cohort trajectories of obesity, regardless of sex and ethnicity, are alarming. Future studies should focus on identifying factors associated with the less profound cohort effect among the Chinese to reduce the magnitude of trajectories in obesity, particularly among future generations.