Development of a Predictive Model of Cardiovascular Risk in a Male Population from the Peruvian Amazon

秘鲁亚马逊地区男性人群心血管风险预测模型的建立

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: The coexistence of malnutrition due to over- and under-nutrition in the Peruvian Amazon increases chronic diseases and cardiovascular risk. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of a male population where anthropometric, clinical, and demographic variables were obtained to create a binary logistic regression predictive model of cardiovascular risk. RESULTS: We compared two methods with good predictive results, finally choosing Model 4 (r(2) = 0.57, sensitivity 73.68%, specificity 95.35%, Youden index 0.69, and validity index 94.21), with non-invasive variables such as blood pressure (p < 0.001), hip circumference (p < 0.001), and FINDRISC test result (p < 0.05); Conclusions: We developed a cheap, fast, and non-invasive tool to determine cardiovascular risk in the population of this endemic area.

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