A Public Value Crisis Model Approach to COVID-19 Outbreak Control in the Dominican Republic

多米尼加共和国新冠疫情控制的公共价值危机模型方法

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 exposed critical vulnerabilities in health systems worldwide. The Dominican Republic faced an early and severe outbreak in Duarte Province, necessitating rapid action. The government implemented a localized "Public Value Crisis Model," known as #PlanDuarte, integrating public-private collaboration, epidemiological intelligence, and community engagement. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether #PlanDuarte was associated with measurable epidemiological improvements using Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA), and to examine how public value principles informed crisis governance. METHODS: We analyzed daily COVID-19 data from March to December 2020 using segmented regression with Newey-West standard errors. Duarte Province (intervention site) was compared with all other provinces (non-intervention group). Data sources included the Ministry of Public Health registry. We assessed changes in trends for daily new cases following the lockdown and the implementation of public value-driven actions. RESULTS: Prior to the intervention, Duarte experienced a significant daily increase in cases (β1 = 0.88, p < 0.001). Following implementation, the post-intervention trend decreased significantly (β3 = -1.63, p < 0.001), unlike the non-intervention provinces. Epidemiological improvements corresponded with increased testing, expanded hospital capacity, and strengthened intersectoral coordination. CONCLUSION: The intervention in Duarte Province was associated with reduced epidemic growth and strengthened system responsiveness. Rooted in public value theory, #PlanDuarte illustrates how coordinated, community-empowering governance structures can improve crisis outcomes. Results reflect temporal association rather than definitive causality and underscore the need for context-sensitive governance in middle-income settings.

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