Abstract
The functioning of ecosystem services in water-limited grassland ecosystems is significantly influenced by precipitation characteristics. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of different precipitation scenarios on grassland productivity using the APSIM model. Historical weather data from 1968 to 2017 and observational data from three types of steppes (meadow, typical, and desert steppe) in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2010 were collected to determine key crop variety parameters for the APSIM model. The effects of annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation, and inter-growing season precipitation variability on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and precipitation utilization efficiency (PUE) in different types of steppes were investigated by scenario simulation by validated model. The simulated ANPP shows distinctive responses to the changed rainfall characteristics, where the influence of precipitation decreasing is more evident than precipitation increasing by the same precipitation change. Regarding steppe types, the typical steppe responded more strongly to increased precipitation, while decreased precipitation led to higher decline in ANPP for desert steppe. Precipitation during growing seasons caused more significant change than dormancy seasons regarding ANPP, however, PUE show the opposite trend, indicating the contribution of unit level precipitation changes to productivity is significant during dormancy seasons. The effect of changing precipitation during middle growing season outweighed that of late growing season and early growing season, and the positive effect of increasing precipitation were more pronounced in typical steppe and desert steppe if facing early growing season precipitation increase in the future. The research results provide a theoretical basis and technical support for optimizing grassland production management.