Abstract
Standard risk stratification (sRisk) guides clinical management in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) and multiple myeloma (MM). Nonetheless, clinical results are considerably heterogeneous among patients with similar risk status. Blood and bone marrow samples from 276 MGUS, 56 SMM and 242 MM in regular clinical practice were analyzed at diagnosis by flow cytometry. Higher levels of aberrant circulating plasma cells (cPC) (> 0.0035% of leukocytes), combined with albumin, beta2-microglobuline and lactate-dehydrogenase levels, offered minimally-invasive risk stratification (RcPC) with results comparable to sRisk. RcPC and sRisk 10-year progression-free-survival (10y-PFS) rates were: 93.8% vs. 95.1% for low-risk, 78.4% vs. 81.7% for intermediate-risk and 50.0% vs. 47.8% for high-risk MGUS; 58.3% vs. 57.8% low-risk, 44.4% vs. 45.8% intermediate-risk and 8.9% vs. 15.0% high-risk SMM; and 44.4% vs. 44.4% low-risk, 36.1% vs. 36.8% intermediate-risk, and 13.3% vs. 16.2% high-risk MM. Circulating-PC > 0.0035% vs. cPC<0.0035% was an independent prognostic factor for PFS (HR=4.389, P=1.2×10-15, Harrell C-statistic =0.7705±0.0190) and over-all survival (OS, HR=4.286, 2.3×10-9, Harrell C-statistic =0.8225±0.0197) that complemented sRisk in patients with low-sRisk (10y-PFS rates 48.1% vs. 87.3%, P=1.2×10-8) and intermediate-sRisk (10y-PFS rates 28.9% vs. 74.1%, P=8.6×10-12). Patients with high cPCs values are associated with higher proliferation and lower apoptosis rates of PC. Circulating-PC > 0.0035% identified MGUS, SMM and MM patients at higher risk of progression or death and predicted a cohort of patients that after relapse from stringent complete response showed shorter OS. These patients could benefit from early consolidation therapy, tandem ASCT or intensive maintenance.