Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To predict the incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan county from 2017 to 2019 on the basis of the incidence rates of lung cancer during 1987-2016. METHODS: Lung cancer incident cases were derived from cancer registry system of Jiashan. Crude incidence, age-standardized incidence rate by the Chinese standard population (ASR China) and the world standard population (ASR world) were calculated. Annual percent change (APC) was used to examine the temporal trend, and the autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA) of time series model was used to predict the incidence rates from 2017 to 2019. RESULTS: There were 6103 lung cancer incident cases during 1987-2016 in Jiashan county. Averagely, the crude incidence rate, ASR China and ASR world were 53.77/10(5), 25.24/10(5) and 34.15/10(5), respectively. The crude incidence rate, ASR China and ASR world in male were 78.30/10(5), 34.77/10(5) and 51.87/10(5), which were higher than those in female (29.15/10(5), 14.31/10(5) and 17.99/10(5)). Crude incidence rate increased from 27.58/10(5) in 1987 to 111.24/10(5) in 2016, and the APC was 5.28%. Crude incidence rate predicted by ARIMA model from 2017 to 2019 would be 135.64/10(5), 145.97/10(5) and 152.63/10(5), and the predicted crude incidence rate for 2017 was close to the real incidence rate in 2017 (135.95/10(5)). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan has been increased dramatically over the past 30 years and will continue to increase in the future.