Abstract
Current knowledge about the factors correlating with functional decline and subsequent failure of kidney allografts in antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is limited. We conducted a cohort study involving 75 renal allograft recipients diagnosed with late ABMR occurring at least 6 months after transplantation. The study aimed to examine the correlation of molecular and histologic features with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories and death-censored graft survival. We focused on sum scores reflecting histologic ABMR activity versus chronicity and molecular scores of ABMR probability (ABMR(Prob)), injury-repair response (IRRAT) and fibrosis (ciprob). In multivariable Cox analysis, a Banff lesion-based chronicity index (ci+ct+cg[x2]; hazard ratio per interquartile range [IQR]: 1.97 [95% confidence interval: 0.97 to 3.99]) and IRRAT (1.93 [0.96 to 3.89]) showed the strongest associations with graft failure. Among biopsy variables, IRRAT exhibited the highest relative variable importance and emerged as the sole independent predictor of eGFR slope (change per IQR: -4.2 [-7.8 to -0.6] mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year). In contrast, morphologic chronicity associated with baseline eGFR only. We conclude that the extent of molecular injury is a robust predictor of renal function decline. Transcriptome analysis has the potential to improve outcome prediction and possibly identify modifiable injury, guiding targeted therapeutic interventions.